Electoral calculus

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Electoral calculus

Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors and local demographics. The site was developed by Martin Baxter, [1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Change UK was later removed from the headline prediction ahead of the general election as their poll scores were not statistically significant. The site is based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United Kingdom's electoral geography, [1] which can be used to calculate the uniform national swing. The calculations were initially based on what is termed the Transition Model , which is derived from the additive uniform national swing model. This uses national swings in a proportional manner to predict local effects. Across the eight general elections from to [8]. It was listed by The Guardian in as one of the " most useful websites", being "the best" for predictions. John Rentoul in The Independent referred to the site after the election. The founder of Electoral Calculus, Martin Baxter, and its sole employee, Marwan Riach, have regularly appeared on UK and international media to offer polling expertise to their audience. Contents move to sidebar hide. Article Talk.

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Our current poll-of-polls predicts what would happen if there were a general election tomorrow. Electoral Calculus has launched a new data service for local parties and campaigners. For any seat, you can see detailed predictions and political attitudes at every local neighbourhood in the seat, at affordable cost. Analysis of recent polling suggests the Lib Dems will do well in their stronghold seats, but Labour has overtaken them in many seats where they came second at the last election. Analysis of forty years of by-election results shows that most by-election gains are overturned at the next general election. The Conservatives would win less than one hundred seats, and the Liberal Democrats are fighting the SNP for third place.

Electoral calculus

Click on the map image to go to a full browsable map of the all the new seats. The current constituency boundaries have been in use since Neither of the two previous boundary reviews in and have been adopted and implemented. In a written statement in March , the government announced that it is going to restart the stalled programme of new boundaries for Westminster constituencies. This new review will keep the number of seats at and not reduce them to as had been planned by David Cameron's coalition government. But the next boundary review will require new seats to be nearly identical in terms of the number of electors in each seat. The review has a very strict limit, and requires each new seat to have an electorate which was not further than 5pc lower or higher than the average. The previous legislation also specified that further new boundary reviews would take place every five years. This new act changes that period to every eight years, allowing for two Westminster elections to take place using each set of boundaries. The current boundaries were first used in and in Scotland , and are now getting a little out of date.

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John Rentoul in The Independent referred to the site after the election. Retrieved 25 May To accept or reject analytics cookies, turn on JavaScript in your browser settings and reload this page. Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. But it's too late for Labour". British political forecasting web site. To accept or reject analytics cookies, turn on JavaScript in your browser settings and reload this page. Skip to main content. The site was developed by Martin Baxter, [1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. Electoral Calculus. Last accounts made up to 31 May Article Talk.

This page allows you to make your own predictions both for the entire country and for any particular Westminster constituency in England, Scotland and Wales. All you need is your own estimate or guess of national opinion support for the main parties. There is also a Regional Predictor for non-uniform swings and a separate predictors for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

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