Metaculus

We believe this will provide Open Philanthropy, metaculus, our grantees, and many others with improved tools for effective planning in high-priority areas such as mitigating extreme risks from AI and synthetic pathogens. This follows our July support metaculus falls within our work on global catastrophic risks.

This follows our May support and falls within our work on global catastrophic risks. We believe this will provide Open Philanthropy, our grantees, and many This falls within our focus area of potential This falls Close menu. Table of Contents.

Metaculus

Metaculus is an American reputation-based , massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. Three types of predictions can be made: probability predictions to binary questions that resolve as either 'yes' or 'no', numerical-range predictions, and date-range predictions. Users can earn points for successful predictions or lose points for unsuccessful predictions , and track their own predictive progress. In June , the Metaculus Prediction was launched, which is a system for aggregating user predictions. Contents move to sidebar hide. Article Talk. Read Edit View history. Tools Tools. Download as PDF Printable version. Online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.

Tools Tools. It does not store any personal metaculus.

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Prediction Resources. Public Data Explorer. Very large Public Data Explorer aggregates public data from dataset providers such as international organizations, national statistical offices, non-governmental organizations, and research institutions. Very Easy This is a good place to start with your search for data, since many datasets are available which are often straightforward to find. There are sometimes also great visualizations. This is perhaps the best place to look for public data and forecasts provided from third-party data providers Highly recommended also is the International Futures Forecasting Data on long-term forecasting and global trend analysis available on the Public Data Explorer. Small Our World in Data aggregates some hundreds of datasets, all of which are organized well and given appropriate context. Very Easy There are excellent visualizations. Each topic the quality of the data is discussed and, by pointing the visitor to the sources, this website is also a database of databases. Covering all of these aspects in one resource makes it possible to understand how the observed long-run trends are interlinked.

Metaculus

Online prediction markets began cropping up in the late s, focusing on everything from movie box office receipts to the outcome of presidential elections. Researchers have speculated that prediction markets are more successful when they include a diversity of informed opinions. Yet such websites are not infallible. Perhaps the most famous recent example of this was the Brexit vote in Great Britain. Prediction markets said voters would opt to remain in the European Union; instead, voters chose to leave the EU.

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The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional". In June , the Metaculus Prediction was launched, which is a system for aggregating user predictions. Advertisement Advertisement. We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. Three types of predictions can be made: probability predictions to binary questions that resolve as either 'yes' or 'no', numerical-range predictions, and date-range predictions. We believe this will provide Open Philanthropy, our grantees, and many others with improved tools for effective planning in high-priority areas such as mitigating extreme risks from AI and synthetic pathogens. Analytics Analytics. Categories : Predictive analytics Prediction markets Organizations associated with effective altruism. Close Privacy Overview This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. Close Privacy Overview This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website.

Metaculus is an American reputation-based , massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. Three types of predictions can be made: probability predictions to binary questions that resolve as either 'yes' or 'no', numerical-range predictions, and date-range predictions. Users can earn points for successful predictions or lose points for unsuccessful predictions , and track their own predictive progress.

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