Big serge substack

As the calendar barrels into another year and we tick away the days of February, notable anniversaries are marked off in sequence.

It is probably safe to say that the current week June , is shaping up to be one of the most significant of the entire Russo-Ukrainian War. On Monday, all eyes were on the Ukrainian Armed Forces and their much anticipated summer counteroffensive, which began with a series of battallion level attacks across the breadth of the theater. Instead, the entire Ukrainian offensive was overshadowed by the sudden and entirely unexpected failure of the dam at Nova Kakhovka on the lower Dneiper. In any case, the legalities are not the main point here. The destruction of dams has the potential to impact civilians on a scale which is an order of magnitude higher than anything which has yet occured.

Big serge substack

In the last 72 hours or so, the pro-Russian side of the internet has been sent into an tailspin of panic over a new Ukrainian counteroffensive which is currently being launched in the Kharkov region, with the intention of compromising the Russian army grouping at Izyum. The panic was triggered by claims that Ukraine was advancing unopposed, encircling - or perhaps even capturing - the city of Balakliya - and on the verge of cutting off supply lines to Izyum. A modest city with a prewar population of perhaps 50, people, Izyum was always slated to be a focal point in this war, due to its location at a critical intersection. The topography of northeastern Ukraine is dominated by a few critically important features which determine patterns of movement. The region is furthermore shaped by the Severodonetsk River - alternatively called simply the Donets from which the Donbas, or Donets Basin, draws its name - which snakes lazily around the plain. Izyum is a strategically crucial city because it is where the highway crosses the river; as an added cherry on top, the Oskil River - a major tributary of the Donets - confluences with the Donets less than five miles to the east of Izyum, meaning the city essentially sits directly on the intersection of all the most important geographic features of the region. A highly simplified map of the area looks like this:. Capturing Izyum was a major objective for Russia in the early weeks of the war as I argued in a previous piece , this was a major reason for the pinning move on Kiev , because it not only interdicts and complicates supply to Ukrainian forces in the Donbas, but it also gave Russia an early position on the Donets river. It is obvious why Ukraine would want to dislodge Russia from Izyum. To achieve this, they are attempting a thrust toward Kupyansk, with the aim of cutting the line connecting Izyum to Belgorod in the north.

The Ukrainians have coped with this as well as anyone because they are themselves quasi-Russian, however much they deny itbut it is an awful thing to trade shells for years on end.

Check this out me korosho drugies: bigserge. This guy is fucking hilarious. Kyive was a trap. Kharkiv was a trap. Lyman was a trap.

Military history writer Big Serge has published an excellent essay that explains much of what has puzzled observers of the conflict in Ukraine—why does Russia appear to be hanging back, what happened to that much touted offensive, and some other matters as well. First, however, here are some basic points that will serve as guide posts. Russia, for political reasons, has not yet declared war on Ukraine—the conflict remains, legally, a Special Military Operation. Legality is very important to him, as we know from his criticisms of the Rules-Based Order, in which the rules are unilaterally made up on the go. A declaration of war may or may not happen, but the lack of such a declaration at this point places constraints on the Russian military. The Russian military is composed of a professional military—personnel who are on contract—and conscripts. Conscripts serve only for a limited time and are mostly trainees for most of their service. Importantly, they cannot be used outside the Russian Federation unless there has been a declaration of war. This lack of full complements is being solved through the mobilization, but the problem of integrating the call-ups into the new organizational structure remains a work in progress.

Big serge substack

Military history writer Big Serge has published an excellent essay that explains much of what has puzzled observers of the conflict in Ukraine—why does Russia appear to be hanging back, what happened to that much touted offensive, and some other matters as well. First, however, here are some basic points that will serve as guide posts. Big Serge is an amazing commentator. For anyone else interested in the dynamics of force generation in modern armies, I'd like to suggest writings from the 's, such as John Dickinson's "The Making of an Army," for American parallels. Essentially, the US Army had the same problem as the Russians in , when the law and Constitutional interpretation decreed that the National Guard could not be sent out of United States Territory, which created a dilemma for planners on how to use it as an effective reserve or nucleus for a large volunteer army. Putin apparently either does not want to do something similar or lacks the legislative support to pass a law permitting the outright drafting of its mobilized reservists into its regular army formations. It's a fascinating inversion of the Russo-Soviet mobilization system that existed in the last century, which finds the Russian military in similar straights to the dilemma's US law placed on US Army planners in the lead up to WWI. It's destroying the Ukrainian Military, including their reserves and equipment, at a steady rate.

The.porndude

Ready for more? Russia is currently driving the attrition of the Ukrainian army and denying Ukraine any chance at regaining operational initiative, while at the same time pursuing important shaping objectives. I find the idea that Russia destroyed the dam to be very difficult to believe, for the following reasons in recap :. While the creep around the flanks occurred in a sequence of on and off pushes through the winter, the concentric crush on the city lasted scarcely more than a week. Syrski may very well lead Ukraine to disaster. Please turn on JavaScript or unblock scripts. It may sound like a truism, but after December 25, , Many a so-called analyst argued that said Industrial Norms had outlived their usefulness. Notice how Russian victory continually retreats in time and space? Ultimately, any analysis would be incomplete without asking a very basic question: who benefits from the destruction of the dam? Kherson is a trap.

Science is a rigorous, systematic endeavor that builds and organizes knowledge in the form of testable explanations and predictions about the world. The history of science spans the majority of the historical record, with the earliest written records of identifiable predecessors to modern science dating to Bronze Age Egypt and Mesopotamia from around to BCE.

The Russian military is composed of a professional military—personnel who are on contract—and conscripts. The latter is a ruski pun Thats practically a cognate of morgue…. The strategic significance of Avdiivka has itself been subject to debate, with some dismissing it as little more than a dingy suburb of Donetsk, targeted to give Putin a symbolic victory on the eve of Russian elections. Start Writing Get the app. Jun 7, Overall, the broad operational situation suggests that Russia is developing offensive momentum across the entire theater. In the last 72 hours or so, the pro-Russian side of the internet has been sent into an tailspin of panic over a new Ukrainian counteroffensive which is currently being launched in the Kharkov region, with the intention of compromising the Russian army grouping at Izyum. We also hear of the Bundeswehr proposing to supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine, with sheep-dipped German crews, without bothering to tell the Chancellor or anything. The sky is filled with aircraft. Notice the subtle dig on washing machines and morgilization? First, the flooding disproportionately affects the Russian side of the river. Courtesy of Rybar :.